Simulating the Probability That Your Singular Vote Swings the Election in November
Well, election season is in full swing — I tell you, just in case you haven’t noticed from the obnoxiously aggressive TV ads and all of the yard signs. Having the right to vote is a wonderful opportunity that many fellow world citizens don’t have. I have often wonder, however, how influential my singular vote can be. In this article, I’m going to attempt to address this question using one of my favorite tools — simulation!
I enjoy using simulation to solve problems — I wrote a series on simulation earlier this year — check it out if that seems interesting.
Data Simulation
In this article, we’ll cover these topics:
- Setting up the simulation
- Simulating your vote swinging your state election
- Simulating your state swinging the overall election
- Estimating the overall probability that your vote decides the president
