Exploring the Quantum Technology Ecosystem with Steve Blank
Guest Post by Steve Blank
In March 2022 I wrote a description of the Quantum Technology Ecosystem. I thought this would be a good time to check in on the progress of building a quantum computer and explain more of the basics.
Just as a reminder, Quantum technologies are used in three very different and distinct markets: Quantum Computing, Quantum Communications, and Quantum Sensing and Metrology. If you don’t know the difference between a qubit and cueball, (I didn’t) read the tutorial here.
Summary –
There’s been incremental technical progress in making physical qubits, and there is no clear winner yet between the seven approaches in building qubits. Advances in materials science are expected to drive down error rates, leading to the next phase in quantum technology development.
We talk a lot about qubits in this post. A qubit, short for a quantum bit, is a quantum computing element that leverages the principle of superposition to encode information using various methods.
Incremental Technical Progress
As of 2024, there are seven different approaches being explored to build physical qubits for a quantum computer. Each company believes that their technology approach will lead them to scale to a working quantum computer.
Every company currently hypes the number of physical qubits they have working, but what matters is the number of logical qubits required for a quantum computer to function effectively.
Reminder – Why Build a Quantum Computer?
Quantum computers are faster on a small set of specialized algorithms, such as Grover’s algorithm, which can search unstructured data faster than a classical computer. Quantum computers show promise in optimizing complex supply chains, energy states, financial models, and more.
One algorithm, Shor’s algorithm, for integer factorization poses a significant threat to existing public cryptography systems, highlighting the urgency for quantum-resistant codes.
How Many Physical Qubits Do You Need for One Logical Qubit?
Thousands of logical qubits are needed to create a functioning quantum computer. To correct errors in quantum calculations, several physical qubits are required to create one logical qubit.
Advances in Materials Science Will Drive Down Error Rates
Reducing errors in qubits is crucial for the development of quantum computers. Materials engineering plays a vital role in making quantum systems work efficiently. Engineering exotic materials at the atomic level is essential for the success of quantum technology.
Regional Research Consortiums
States like Illinois and Colorado are investing heavily in quantum research to establish national hubs for quantum technologies. Collaborations with DARPA’s Quantum Proving Ground program aim to advance quantum research and innovation.
Venture Capital Investment, FOMO, and Financial Engineering
Venture capital has poured billions into quantum technology companies, driven by the fear of missing out and financial engineering strategies. While the quantum industry shows promise, there is still a long way to go before commercial applications outperform classical computers.
Lessons Learned
The quantum technology ecosystem holds great potential, with ongoing engineering improvements and the development of quantum algorithms. The mastery of material engineering and interconnections will be critical for the success of quantum computing technologies.
Update: The math behind quantum computing is complex and involves various factors such as error rates and logical qubit requirements. Further research and technological advancements are needed to bridge the gap between theory and practice in quantum computing.
Steve Blank is an adjunct professor at Stanford and co-founder of Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.