The demand for neodymium-based magnets is on the rise and is expected to exceed the available supply in the coming decade. This poses a potential challenge for industries that rely on this essential metal for various applications. While the future supply of neodymium may not be as dire in the long run, it’s crucial to address the challenges we may face across the material supply chain in the future.
Peak panic
When we look at the future of materials like neodymium, it’s essential to consider the history of predicting resource scarcity. One prime example is the concept of “peak oil,” which suggests that there is a maximum amount of oil that can be extracted before production starts to decline irreversibly.
The concept of peak oil dates back to the early 1900s, but one of the most famous analyses was done by geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956. Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US would peak between 1965 and 1970, followed by a global peak in 2000 based on the known reserves and consumption rates at the time.
While Hubbert’s prediction seemed accurate for a while as US oil production peaked in 1970, advancements in drilling technologies led to a resurgence in oil production in the US during the 2010s. This unexpected trend challenges the notion of peak oil and highlights the uncertainties in predicting resource availability.
The recurring cycle of peak oil predictions that have missed the mark so far serves as a cautionary tale for forecasting material scarcity. As we navigate the challenges in the supply chain for neodymium and other essential materials, it’s crucial to approach future projections with caution and adaptability.